Critical minerals requirements for meeting net zero pathways in the United Kingdom

Critical minerals are essential to the future decarbonisation plans of any country in a range of sectors including clean energy transition and defence. The ability for countries to secure this demand into the future is becoming a key concern of policymakers.

Despite this concern, it is still unclear how much and when critical minerals will be required, as this is not routinely examined at the national level. This paper fills this gap, by estimating future national demand profiles for critical minerals, using the United Kingdom (UK) as a case study. We show that the demand for cobalt, graphite, and lithium is likely to grow the most, with annual demand growing between 7 and 15 times by 2050 from current levels.

We found that, although the timing and demand growth rates for these minerals differ across net-zero pathways, the cumulative demand by 2050 is approximately the same, regardless of the pathway to net-zero.

We also test the impact of changing battery chemistries in electric vehicles on the demand for critical minerals and find that a shift towards higher shares of lithium-ion phosphate (LFP) batteries could eliminate the majority of demand for cobalt, while increasing demand for graphite by approximately 11% in 2050.

Click here to read the full paper by Samuel Stephenson, Luke Cullen, Jonathan Cullen and André Cabrera Serrenho.

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