Using product and economic complexity analysis of the copper value chain, this knowledge brief shows that most low- and middle-income countries lack the productive capabilities to participate beyond extraction and processing — and that even where value is added, multinational ownership structures and unfavourable governance conditions mean mineral-rich countries often fail to capture the resulting economic benefits.

Authors: Gretel Cuevas Verdin, Baptiste Andrieu, Jonathan Cullen.

The UK’s current indicator-based criticality assessment is a useful screening tool but cannot identify specific disruption scenarios or quantify economic consequences. This knowledge brief recommends a phased transition toward simulation-based assessment while improving existing screening methods in parallel, with predictive modelling of disruption likelihood as the key bridge between the two approaches.

Authors: Benjamin Adams, Baptiste Andrieu, Gretel Cuevas Verdin, Jonathan Cullen, André Cabrera Serrenho.

This brief presents a novel multi-scale geospatial framework — combining satellite mine monitoring, spatial ESG indicators, transport network modelling, and displacement data — to identify and validate supply chain vulnerabilities, demonstrated through case studies in Zambia and the Malawi–Zimbabwe–Mozambique transport corridor.

Authors: Alexey Noskov, Gretel Cuevas Verdin, Jonathan Cullen, André Cabrera Serrenho.

With UK lithium demand projected to rise over 1,000% by 2035 and no commercially operating domestic mines, this brief calls for a ‘plus one’ industrial policy to ensure at least one UK-based producer at each stage of the battery supply chain, alongside mandatory industry reporting and open stock–flow models to track lithium flows and support recycling.

Authors: Philip Mitchell, Gretel Cuevas Verdin, Sam Stephenson, Jonathan Cullen, André Cabrera Serrenho.

Drawing on Zambia’s mining governance framework, this policy brief argues that the country’s central ESG challenge is not a legislative vacuum but a law–practice gap, where existing environmental, social, and governance obligations remain weakly embedded in licensing, monitoring, and enforcement — and recommends reforms to make ESG requirements binding conditions of project approval and licence renewal.

Authors: Mehrnoosh Heydari, Gretel Cuevas Verdin, Jonathan Cullen, André Cabrera Serrenho.

This policy brief examines critical mineral demand across 10 UK net zero pathways, finding that while 2035 recycling targets are unlikely to be met, by 2050 domestic recycling of end-of-life clean energy technologies could supply the majority of UK demand for cobalt, graphite, and lithium — provided investment in battery recycling infrastructure begins now.

Authors: Sam Stephenson, Jonathan Cullen, André Cabrera Serrenho.

We have recently released 3 Policy Briefs and 3 Knowledge Briefs for the Climate Compatible Growth project.

Policy Briefs:

• Critical Minerals in the UK: Insights from the Analysis of 10 Net Zero Pathways
• Strengthening ESG Integration into Critical Mineral Supply Chains in Zambia: Lessons for Low- and Middle Income Countries
• Securing the UK Lithium Supply: If supply is Constrained, can basic needs be met?

Knowledge Briefs:

• Strengthening Critical Mineral Supply Chain Resilience through Multi-Scale Geospatial Monitoring
• Strengthening Future UK Raw Material Criticality Assessments 
• Rethinking Value Chain Upgrading and Value Capture in Mineral-Rich Countries

The Refficiency team have recently released 3 Critical Mineral reports for the Climate Compatible Growth project.

• China’s Role in the UK Energy Transition: From Mine to Technology
• A Systematic Review of Resilience in the Critical Minerals Supply Chains, Needed for the Low-Carbon Energy Transition
• Critical Minerals in the ASEAN Region: Assessing the Opportunities and Risks

The Climate Compatible Growth team in the Resource Efficiency Collective have produced three Critical Minerals dashboards:

• Mapping regional metal flows from mine ownership to final consumption 
• Critical Minerals WebGIS dashboard 
• Critical Minerals Supply Chain News Dashboard 

Decarbonisation of the cement industry is necessary under the UK’s Sixth Carbon Budget by 2040. This project uses existing literature to map the range of LCCTs across the cement and cementitious product lifecycle and quantify their upper bound potential emissions savings, compared to an OPC (Ordinary Portland Cement) baseline, and possible carbon savings if fully deployed in the UK cement and concrete industry.